By Melissa McCullough
A ROY Morgan poll* released on 9 October said the 2026 Victorian state election is currently too close to call.
The poll’s data indicates the ALP/Greens are narrowly ahead on the Liberals-Nationals and One Nation at 46 seats to 42 seats.
The poll also established a One Nation “winnability” scale of one to 88, listing all the Victorian Lower House (Legislative Assembly) seats in order of their “winnability” for the resurgent party.
Roy Morgan’s analysis of the data states: “Overall, the map demonstrates that although One Nation’s greatest opportunities remain in regional Victoria, its electoral potential now extends well beyond the stereotypical ‘country voter’ base, giving the party a competitive presence across a much wider part of the State.
On the peninsula, Hastings is the seat most likely to swing to One Nation on the poll’s “winnability list”, placing at 10th out of the 88 seats.
Nepean comes in next at 24th on the list and Mornington comes in at 46th on the list.
Hastings is the highest ranked seat in terms of “winnability” for One Nation in metropolitan Melbourne.
Overall for the state, the analysis stated “If a Victorian election were held today, based on a seat-by-seat analysis of Roy Morgan data from the past six months, with preferences allocated based on how electors said they would vote. It would be a real cliffhanger”.
“Two natural coalitions – that we’re told won’t happen – would see a Labor Greens government with 46 seats just ahead of a competitive L-NP/One Nation (ONP) opposition on 42 seats.”
The poll predicts a massive wipeout for Labor seats, going from 56 in the 2022 election down to just 40 in this year’s contest, a loss of 16 seats.
Concerningly for the Liberals, the poll projects the Liberal/National Coalition will pick up just three seats, lifting from the current 28 seats to 31, well short of the 45 needed to form a government in their own right.
The poll suggests the Greens are likely to pick up two more seats, taking them to six. That figure, combined with Labor’s projected 40 seats would put Labor in power for another four years only if they governed with the Greens.
The big winner in the poll is One Nation, projected to go from zero seats in the 2022 Victorian state election to 11.
Even if the Wilson Liberal Party was willing to form a government with Hanson’s One Nation, on those poll numbers they would still be short of the numbers to make it happen.
The Roy Morgan poll analysis points out it is early days with factors such as preference flow, new coalitions being formed, and the potential of a minority government still to be considered.
“Of particular importance to the result in this year’s Victorian election, is the final primary vote on a seat-by-seat basis as well as the preference deals, and more importantly preference flows, in each seat,” stated the analysis.
“Because preference flows can change dramatically depending on the order of parties eliminated in each seat, the overall winnability score in any given seat can be impacted by the final primary vote result and the given preference flows in that seat.”
Basically what that is saying is that anything can happen this election with the asymmetrical situation created by the rise of a third major contender.
Bear in mind these figures are, in Roy Morgan’s own analysis “Before all candidates are locked in, before preference deals are done, and before the campaign begins in earnest in the next few weeks”. In other words, it isn’t that things might change, but that things will change.
The peninsula’s voters are only just getting to know their candidates, and as the weeks progress, things will become clearer. Hopefully.
*Roy Morgan Finding No: 10346
First published in the Mornington News – 20 October 2026
