WITH less than six weeks until the Nepean by-election, electoral rolls are now closed and candidates are able to officially nominate for the race.
A new name has entered the contest with Milton Wilde nominating for “End Mass Immigration – Reform AU”. Wilde joins the Liberal Party (Anthony Marsh), Victorian Greens (Sianan Healy), One Nation (Darren Hercus), Libertarians (Peter Angelico), and Indepdendents for Mornington Peninsula (Tracee Hutchison) to make up the six contesting Nepean so far.
Pundits from the major parties would have looked to South Australia over the weekend, and pondered how the results there will offer an insight into both the Nepean by-election and in the general election in November.
One Nation surged in the South Australian poll, grabbing the lower house seat of Ngadjuri that was previously held by the Liberal Party, and could potentially win more than one seat.
One Nation’s Nepean by-election candidate Darren Hercus told The News “For One Nation’s David Paton to win the SA seat of Ngadjuri is a terrific result. For One Nation to be second overall on the primary vote is outstanding. We could potentially win two or three more lower house seats that are currently undecided”.
It is a seismic shift for what has keen considered until recently a minor party. In fact, before Saturday, One Nation had never won a single lower house state seat outside Queensland.
Why does it matter?
The Nepean by-election, not contested by Labor, is shaping up as a barometer of new Liberal Party leader Jess Wilson’s ability to turn around a jaded base, while also being a measuring stick of the purported surge in support for One Nation.
The Liberal Party currently holds just 20 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly. Even in coalition with the Nationals (who hold nine), the parties would need to flip a minimum of 16 seats to win in November.
Come November, if One Nation poll strongly, it is likely to be a preferences boon for the Liberal Party. That could be enough to make the difference to their November fortunes.
If One Nation poll even better, we could see the party picking up lower house seats in Victoria, just like we have seen in South Australia.
It was unthinkable a few years ago, but one scenario would be that the Liberal/Nationals fail to pick up the required 16 seats, and One Nation pick up seats. It could be that the Liberal Party would be forced to do a deal with One Nation to govern.
The general election is a long way away, but the first indications of what is in store come November may be seen on 2 May.
No doubt the bean counters in both the Liberal Party and Labor are watching closely.
Liberal Candidate Anthony Marsh was joined by the deputy leader of the Victorian Liberal Party, David Southwick MP, on Friday. After hitting the hustings during the day, they attended the unveiling of the new Searoad Ferries Sorrento terminal on Friday night.
Marsh also took to social media last week after witnessing the aftermath of a learner driver, doing a lesson with an instructor, hitting a pothole, blowing the tyre.
“What could have been a very, very dangerous situation luckily just resulted in some damage to the instructor’s car,” said Marsh.
“This is not good enough. Our local roads are not good enough. Nepean needs a representative with a proven track record of fixing our roads.”
Independent for Mornington Peninsula candidate Tracee Hutchison had her campaign launch in Rye on Sunday 15 March.
After the event she posted to social media “Thank you to everyone who came to our Campaign Launch. I’m determined to make the positive change you’re telling me you want in Nepean”.
“We’ve been out on the streets listening to your concerns, working hard to be your voice in Parliament.”
Meanwhile, Victorian Greens candidate for the by-election, Sianan Healy has taken to social media to voice her opposition to the planned development at Arthurs Seat Eagle.
“Despite more than 400 submissions from locals opposing it, the Victorian Government recently approved construction of a massive privately owned rollercoaster right through a state park here on Arthurs Seat (Wonga). Yep – this precious public green space, a crucial wildlife corridor and stunning natural environment that should be available to all of us to use, is being handed over to a billionaire-owned corporation,” said Healy.
“And we’re angry about it. We’re tired of not being listened to, of seeing big business and government cosying up together to make decisions that line their pockets while locals and the environment pay the price.”
The Victorian Greens’ will be officially launching their Nepean by-election campaign at Blairgowrie Community Hall on 29 March.
First published in the Mornington News – 24 March 2026
