ANTHONY Marsh is heading to Spring Street as the Liberal Party’s elected Member for Nepean, after winning the by-election on Saturday (2 May).
His election will result in his resignation as Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor and councillor for Briars Ward, triggering a by-election for the vacant ward.
As of the close of counting on Saturday night, 40,612 votes had been counted, representing 79.77% of the total enrolment as at the close of the rolls.
Marsh came out on top in the primary count with 14927 votes (38.53% of the votes), followed by One Nation’s Darren Hercus with 9556 votes (24.66% of the votes), and independent Tracee Hutchison with 8239 votes (21.26% of the votes).
The Liberal primary vote was considerably down on the 2022 election when Sam Groth won the seat with 19614 votes (48.11% of the votes) in an election that included a Labor and Greens candidate, but not a One Nation candidate or substantial independent candidate.
Looking forward to the November general election, the number crunchers from both major parties will need to figure out where the substantial votes for One Nation and the independent came from.
The Labor vote in the 2022 poll was 13308; votes that will have gone elsewhere as Labor did not field a candidate. With Hutchison polling 8239 votes, that leaves over 5000 Labor votes that went elsewhere other than Hutchison, noting the Greens vote virtually unchanged from 2022.
The Liberal primary vote was down by 4687. It could be assumed many of those voters went to One Nation, but that falls 5000 votes short of accounting for Hercus’ 9556 votes.
The fear for Labor is with the absence of a candidate, many Labor voters may have ended up voting for One Nation.
Although Hercus did not win, One Nation must be pleased with the high primary polling. It took the VEC by surprise as they had predetermined that Marsh and Hutchison would be the final two in the two-candidate preferred calculator on their website.
To streamline the process of determining the winner, the VEC pre-determines who they believe will be the two highest polling candidates. They then provide data of the indicative 2CP results to keep people well informed of the likely outcome as quickly as possible.
Hercus has declared he will be back to contest the November poll and told The News that he called Marsh to congratulate him on his win.
Tracee Hutchison, who is sitting in third spot in current counting, has also vowed to recontest the seat in November, telling supporters on social media “I want to thank you for your incredible support over these past eight weeks. Your dedication and loyalty, as volunteers, donors and supporters, have played a vital role in this campaign – and fuelled my determination to keep going”.
“Together, we’ve built something powerful. People across Nepean want politics done differently, and are ready for a strong, independent voice to represent them.
“I want to let you know that I will be running again as your local, honest, independent candidate for Nepean at the State Election in November.”
Marsh claimed victory around 9.30pm on Saturday night. Speaking to media, Marsh said “It was the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean,” and that he’d be “On the ground every day fighting for Nepean.”
Marsh didn’t waste much time, heading to parliament house on Sunday to tour his new workplace with Jess Wilson, the leader of the Victorian Liberal Party.
Counting resumed from Monday, with a recheck of all ballot papers counted after the close of voting on election day. A media release from the VEC stated “This is standard procedure for accuracy of sorting, formality and counts. Postal votes received after election day will be added to the count from Wednesday”.
A full distribution of preferences for the by-election will be conducted in the week commencing Monday 11 May. This will provide the final margin between the two candidates with the highest number of votes following the distribution of preferences.
First published in the Mornington News – 5 May 2026
