Polls have now closed. We’ll provide rolling results during the evening until the winner of the by-election is know.
9.48PM
Anthony Marsh will be the next Member for Nepean after the Liberal Party claimed victory in today’s by-election. Speaking to media, Marsh said “It was the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean,” and that he’d be “On the ground every day fighting for Nepean.” Picture: Yanni
9.21PM
The mood is upbeat among the Liberal faithful gathered at Rye Hotel. Marsh, centre, with Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson to his right. Picture: Yanni
9.15PM
40,337 votes are currently in, representing 79.23% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far. The results are primary votes, organised in highest number of votes to lowest number of votes:
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 14,821 votes – 38.49%
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 9507 votes – 24.69%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 8206 votes – 21.31%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 3581 votes – 9.30%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 1114 votes – 2.89%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 647 votes – 1.68%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 471 votes – 1.22%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 155 votes – 0.40%
INFORMAL VOTES: 1835 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 40,337 votes
8.59PM
The VEC’s projected two-candidate preferred (2CP) count is placing Anthony Marsh at 56.75% of the vote and Tracee Hutchison at 43.25% of the vote. This is despite Hutchison currently trailing One Nation’s Darren Hercus.
To streamline the process of determining the winner, the VEC pre-determines who they believe will be the two highest polling candidates. They then provide data of the indicative 2CP results to keep people well informed of the likely outcome as quickly as possible.
That approach didn’t work out in the 2025 federal election in Flinders where they intially put Liberal Zoe McKenzie and Labor’s Sarah Race as the 2CP candidates.
At a certain point in that night the two candidate preferred vote data was removed from the AEC’s website when it became clear the reality was far more complex than the provided graphic. In that case, the final result was determined by a three-way complex count scenario after Labor’s Race and independent Ben Smith polled very closely for second place.
We could see something similar play out here tonight.
8.43PM
32,037 votes are currently in, representing 62.93% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far. The results are primary votes, organised in highest number of votes to lowest number of votes:
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 12,095 votes – 39.49%
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 7279 votes – 23.77%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 6593 votes – 21.53%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 2776 votes – 9.06%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 874 votes – 2.85%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 501 votes – 1.64%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 385 votes – 1.26%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 126 votes – 0.41%
INFORMAL VOTES: 1408 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 32,037 votes
8.27PM
With 34.22% of the vote counted, One Nation’s Darren Hercus has slipped into second spot (21.43% of the primary vote) with just 85 votes more than independent Tracee Hutchison (20.92% of the primary vote). Anthony Marsh has increased his lead of the primary vote to 41.25%.
8.25PM
17,419 votes are currently in, representing 34.22% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far. The results are primary votes, organised in highest number of votes to lowest number of votes:
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 6921 votes – 41.25%
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 3596 votes – 21.43%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 3511 votes – 20.92%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 1699 votes – 10.13%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 331 votes – 3.15%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 298 votes – 1.78%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 213 votes – 1.27%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 84 votes – 0.50%
INFORMAL VOTES: 639 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 17,419 votes
8.13PM
10,997 votes are currently in, representing 21.60% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far. The results are primary votes, organised in highest number of votes to lowest number of votes:
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 3846 votes – 36.60%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 2500 votes – 23.79%
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 2231 votes – 21.23%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 1239 votes – 11.79%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 331 votes – 3.15%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 167 votes – 1.59%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 152 votes – 1.45%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 42 votes – 0.40%
INFORMAL VOTES: 489 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 10,997 votes
8.03PM
8528 votes are currently in, representing 16.75% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far.
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 1634 votes – 20.02%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 110 votes – 1.35%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 919 votes – 11.26%
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 3149 votes – 38.58%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 30 votes – 0.37%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 121 votes – 1.48%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 1968 votes – 24.11%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 231 votes – 2.83%
INFORMAL VOTES: 366 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 8528
8.03PM
7238 votes are currently in, representing 14.22% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far.
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 1370 votes – 19.76%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 95 votes – 1.37%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 799 votes – 11.53%
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 2619 votes – 37.78%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 27 votes – 0.39%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 95 votes – 1.37%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 1733 votes – 25.00%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 194 votes – 2.80%
INFORMAL VOTES: 306 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 7238
7.55PM
Darren Hercus, centre, with supporters at the One Nation vote count function at Dromana Hotel. Picture: Yanni
7.47PM
4528 votes are currently in, representing 8.89% of the total enrolment as of the close of rolls. here are the numbers so far.
HERCUS, Darren (One Nation): 941 votes – 21.82%
SMITH, Reade (Sustainable Australia Party): 69 votes – 1.60%
HEALY, Sianan (The Greens): 556 votes – 12.89%
MARSH, Anthony (Liberal): 1428 votes – 33.11%
WILDE, Milton (Reform AU): 19 votes – 0.44%
ANGELICO, Peter (Libertarian): 68 votes – 1.58%
HUTCHISON, Tracee (Independent): 1076 votes – 24.95%
THOMPSON, Renee (Legalise Cannabis) : 156 votes – 3.62%
INFORMAL VOTES: 215 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 4528
7.25PM
Blairgowrie, Rye, Waterfall Gully, Flinders and Dromana have submitted results. Here are the numbers so far.
HERCUS, Darren: 862 votes – 22.11%
SMITH, Reade: 64 votes – 1.64%
HEALY, Sianan: 501 votes – 12.85%
MARSH, Anthony: 1283 votes – 32.91%
WILDE, Milton: 14 votes – 0.36%
ANGELICO, Peter: 57 votes – 1.46%
HUTCHISON, Tracee: 979 votes – 25.11%
THOMPSON, Renee: 139 votes – 3.57%
INFORMAL VOTES: 193 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 4092
7.25PM
Blairgowrie, Rye and Waterfall Gully have submitted their results. Here are the numbers so far.
HERCUS, Darren: 620 votes – 22.63%
SMITH, Reade: 50 votes – 1.82%
HEALY, Sianan: 386 votes – 14.09%
MARSH, Anthony: 867 votes – 31.64%
WILDE, Milton: 9 votes – 0.33%
ANGELICO, Peter: 44 votes – 1.61%
HUTCHISON, Tracee: 655 votes – 23.91%
THOMPSON, Renee: 109 votes – 3.98%
INFORMAL VOTES: 146 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 2886
7.20PM
The results have started to arrive, although only a very few numbers so far.
HERCUS, Darren: 395 votes – 20.65%
SMITH, Reade: 27 votes – 1.41%
HEALY, Sianan: 279 votes – 14.58%
MARSH, Anthony: 640 votes – 33.46%
WILDE, Milton: 4 votes – 0.21%
ANGELICO, Peter: 40 votes – 2.09%
HUTCHISON, Tracee: 459 votes – 23.99%
THOMPSON, Renee: 69 votes – 3.61%
INFORMAL VOTES: 105 votes
TOTAL VOTES: 2018
7.10PM
VEC data shows that 23,605 people elected to cast an early vote as of last Friday. An additional 6,043 people had returned a postal vote application.
With 50,910 enrolled residents in the electorate, that means more than half of those eligible voted before the polls opened on Saturday.
The early voting numbers were down from the 2022 state election in Nepean that saw 25,614 early voters. Postal votes are up on the 2022 number of 5,131.
6.55PM
Early results are expected to be available from approximately 7.30pm.
Initially, first preferences for each candidate are counted. Then a 2CP count is conducted, where preferences are distributed to the 2 candidates considered most likely to be in the lead after a full distribution of preferences. The VEC has pre-determined those candidates to be Liberal Anthony Marsh and Independent Tracee Hutchison.
The purpose of 2CP is to provide an indication of the likely result. It is indicative only and has no bearing on the final result.
If the selected candidates are incorrect, a corrected 2CP may take place during the week following election day if a winner cannot be predicted on election night. This decision is made at the VEC’s discretion.
The VEC expects to finish counting by approximately 11 pm on election night, conducted under full scrutiny. However, we will continue until all votes available to us have been counted.
Counting will resume in the morning on Monday 4 May with rechecks of all votes counted on election night. This is a routine process, which involves rechecking each district ballot paper for correct counting and formality.
A count of postal votes received after election day will take place at the VEC’s centralised activity site on Wednesday 6 May. Final postal votes, as well any provisional and marked-as-voted votes, will be counted on Friday 8 May.
A full preference distribution will occur in the weeks after election day. This will be completed even if a candidate has received an absolute majority of first preferences. The full preference distribution will be published on the VEC website once it is complete.
6.15PM
The VEC’s website has listed the two-party-preferred vote as being between Liberal Anthony Marsh and Indepdendent Tracee Hutchison.
To streamline the process of determining the winner, the VEC pre-determines who they believe will be the two highest polling candidates.
They then provide data of the indicative 2CP results to keep people well informed of the likely outcome as quickly as possible.
That approach didn’t work out in the 2025 federal election in Flinders where they intially put Liberal Zoe McKenzie and Labor’s Sarah Race as the 2CP candidates, but had to change the website when Indepdendent Smith polled very close to Race.
6.06PM
Polls have closed and counting has commenced in the 2026 Nepean by-election
