The Victorian Electoral Commission has officially declared Anthony Marsh the elected member for Nepean.
The final two-party preferred results after the distribution of preferences were Marsh with 25642 votes (63.24%) and Independent Tracee Hutchison with 14903 votes (36.76%).
The result puts an end to the long-running saga after the previous Member for Nepean, Sam Groth, resigned in February sparking a by-election.
The result saw the Liberal’s share of the primary vote slip significantly from to 48.11% of the vote in the 2022 state election to 38.68% in the by-election; a drop of 3932 votes.
On the other hand, due to the rise of One Nation, whose preferences benefitted the Liberals, and the decision by Labor not to field a candidate, the by-election saw the margin in the seat rise from 6.68% under Groth to 13.24% under Marsh.
The 2022 poll was dominated by only three groups; Liberal, Labor and the Greens, with no other candidate in the field of 11 managing to get over 3% of the vote.
This time around, matters were complicated by Labor’s decision not run, the entry of a strong independent contender, Tracee Hutchison, and a resurgent One Nation.
One Nation’s Darren Hercus attracted 9941 of the primary votes (24.52%) and Hutchison 8533 (21.05%), with the Greens the only other significant contender with 3805 votes (9.38%).
If you were to contend the Liberal’s primary vote drop all went to One Nation, then it still falls 6000 votes short of the number of primary votes garnered by Pauline Hanson’s party.
Likewise, although Labor’s Chris Brayne attracted 13,308 primary votes in 2022, the independent candidate this time around managed 8533 primary votes; a shortfall of nearly 5000 Labor voters that went elsewhere than the independent.
Considering the Greens votes was only up by 229 votes between 2022 and the 2026 by-election (3576 and 3805 respectively), it begs the question where did rest of Labor’s voters go?
It is vexing proposition for Labor that many of their voters appear to have swung to One Nation.
More can be gleaned from the current political climate by an examination of the preference distributions.
With minor contenders eliminated, and Green’s Sianan Healy the next to be excluded, there were 4533 Greens votes to be reallocated. Nearly 10% of those votes (418) went to One Nation, and over 20% went to the Liberal Party (936), with the balance going to Hutchison (3179). It effectively meant that over 30% of Greens preferences went to right-wing parties.
Likewise, when Legalise Cannabis Victoria’s candidate, Renee Thompson, was eliminated the round before, 339 of the 1393 votes she was holding went to One Nation.
Although Hercus attracted 1408 more primary voters than Hutchison, the independent slipped ahead during preference distribution to grab the second spot, eliminating Hercus in the final round of preference redistribution before the final two candidates were established. By the time it got to that, Hercus held 11,115 votes, with 22.5% of his preferences going to Hutchison and 77.5% going to Marsh.
The seat will once again go to the polls in the state general election in November, with at least two of the unsuccessful candidates from the by-election, One Nation’s Hercus and independent Hutchison, indicating they will contest the seat again. Labor is also expected to contest the seat in November.
On the declaration of the winner, Marsh told The News “It is the honour of my life to be elected as the Member for Nepean in the Victorian Parliament”.
“Thank you to the people of Nepean for the trust and confidence you have placed in me. I will work hard every single day to serve our entire community, regardless of who you voted for, and to be a strong local voice for the Mornington Peninsula.
“I’m incredibly grateful, humbled and excited for what lies ahead.”
